Texas: Map Reveals Counties Where Population Is Surging

Birth rates in the United States are on the decline, reaching a historic low of 1.6 children per woman in 2023, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. However, while some states have seen their populations plunge, others are skyrocketing.
Texas is the second-largest state by area, surpassed only by Alaska. It also has the second-largest population size, at 30.5 million as of July 2023, according to U.S. Census Bureau data.
Aside from its size, Texas is also one of the fastest-growing states in the country: Between July 2020 and 2023, its population grew by more than 1.2 million people. However, this growth has not been even across the state.
The Lone Star State’s central and eastern counties saw the most significant growth during this period, with often dramatic population shrinkage in western counties.
The map below shows which Texas counties are growing the fastest:
According to this data, the five fastest-growing counties between 2020 and 2023 were:
Meanwhile, the five fastest-shrinking counties during this period were:
So what is driving these changes?
Many of the fastest-growing counties are based around the state’s largest metropolises. Kaufman and Rockwall, for example, are located right up against Dallas, while Liberty County is a hop, skip and a jump away from Harris County. Meanwhile, many of Texas’ more rural counties in the west have seen their populations plummet as people move to be nearer the bustling cities.
A significant proportion of the state’s population increase has been a result of domestic in-migration—that is, people moving to Texas from other U.S. states.
“In 2022, almost 50 percent of the growth was due to people moving from other states to Texas,” Helen You, the associate director of the Texas Demographics Center, told Texas Public Radio. “About 25 percent was because of people from other countries to Texas. Only 25 percent was due to the natural increase, which was births minus deaths.”
That said, compared with other states, Texas still has some of the highest levels of natural population growth—in 2023, three of the top five counties nationwide for natural population growth were in Texas. They were Harris, Dallas and Tarrant counties.
So what does this mean for the Lone Star State?
“The growth is good for the economy, especially now that we’re kind of seemingly in a tight labor market,” You said. “Studies show that migrants are usually younger, more likely to be in the labor force and more likely to be employed. And, of course, it’s good for our revenue, like what we saw with the big surplus that Texas had.”
However, such rapid population growth can also pose challenges.
“The other side of the coin is the pressure that it puts on our infrastructure. Our studies have shown that median house value has increased more than household income,” You said. “And transportation. If you’re in one of the high-growing areas, [I] don’t need to tell you how much time you spend on the road.”
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